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Kluczbork vs Górnik Polkowice — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Kluczbork
Kluczbork
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
E. Bilokin 57'
F. Baranowski 12'
9/30/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kluczbork42%
×Draw24%
Górnik Polkowice34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kluczbork
1.64
Górnik Polkowice
1.46

Kluczbork creates 12% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 51 away

creates per match

Kluczbork
1.95
Górnik Polkowice
1.55

allows per match

Kluczbork
1.36
Górnik Polkowice
1.33

finishing

Kluczbork+0.00on par
Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kluczbork ↓

Górnik Polkowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kluczbork or draw
66%
Kluczbork or Górnik Polkowice
76%
Draw or Górnik Polkowice
58%

Winning margin

Kluczbork wins by 2+
21%
Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kluczbork 1+ goals
81%
Kluczbork 2+ goals
49%
Kluczbork 3+ goals
23%
Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
77%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
43%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kluczbork (draw refunded)
55%
Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kluczbork at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 103 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kluczbork attack 1.95 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.64

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.55 + Kluczbork defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kluczbork scores more
42%
level
24%
Górnik Polkowice scores more
34%

Kluczbork at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kluczbork will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
F. Baranowski
57'
E. Bilokin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kluczbork vs Górnik Polkowice

Górnik Polkowice beat Kluczbork 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 30, 2023.

Goals: F. Baranowski (12'), E. Bilokin (57').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Kluczbork.