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Klubi-04 vs KäPa — Ykkösliiga 2026

Klubi-04
Klubi-04
Preview
16:00
KäPa
KäPa
9/7/2026YkkösliigaYkkösliiga · Group StageBolt Arena
Big match
46%
Klubi-04
model favours
46%22%31%

KäPa score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
67%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Klubi-0446%
×Draw22%
KäPa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Klubi-04
1.92
KäPa
1.55

Klubi-04 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 38 away

creates per match

Klubi-04
1.36
KäPa
1.47

allows per match

Klubi-04
1.64
KäPa
2.47

finishing

Klubi-04+0.00on par
KäPa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 67Under: 3367%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 67No: 3367%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klubi-04 ↓

KäPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Klubi-04 or draw
69%
Klubi-04 or KäPa
78%
Draw or KäPa
54%

Winning margin

Klubi-04 wins by 2+
26%
KäPa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Klubi-04 1+ goals
85%
Klubi-04 2+ goals
57%
Klubi-04 3+ goals
30%
KäPa 1+ goals
79%
KäPa 2+ goals
46%
KäPa 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Klubi-04 (draw refunded)
60%
KäPa (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Klubi-04 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

KäPa away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Klubi-04 attack 1.36 + KäPa defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.92

KäPa attack 1.47 + Klubi-04 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Klubi-04 scores more
46%
level
22%
KäPa scores more
31%

Klubi-04 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Klubi-04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Klubi-04 score first in only 29% of matches
  • Both teams score in 72% of KäPa’s matches
  • Both teams score in 71% of Klubi-04’s matches
  • 67% of KäPa’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Klubi-04
LWDLW
KäPa
LLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Klubi-04 face KäPa (Ykkösliiga)

Ykkösliiga returns with Klubi-04 hosting KäPa. Match starts September 7, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Klubi-04 host KäPa at Bolt Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.