Klubi-04 4–6 JäPS: Result & Stats | Ykkösliiga

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Klubi-04Expected goals in this matchJäPS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.55

Klubi-04

1.69

JäPS

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 36 away

1.36

creates per match

1.47

1.64

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Klubi-04

1.36

JäPS

1.47

allows per match

Klubi-04

1.64

JäPS

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Klubi-04+0.00on par

JäPS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klubi-04 ↓

JäPS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Klubi-04 or draw

65%

Klubi-04 or JäPS

77%

Draw or JäPS

59%

Winning margin

Klubi-04 wins by 2+

21%

JäPS wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Klubi-04 1+ goals

82%

Klubi-04 2+ goals

50%

Klubi-04 3+ goals

24%

JäPS 1+ goals

79%

JäPS 2+ goals

46%

JäPS 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Klubi-04 (draw refunded)

54%

JäPS (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Klubi-04 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

JäPS away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Klubi-04 attack 1.36 + JäPS defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.69

JäPS attack 1.47 + Klubi-04 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Klubi-04 scores more

41%

level

23%

JäPS scores more

35%

Klubi-04 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Klubi-04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

F. Etu↳ C. Sidibe

13'

K. Isaksson

27'

M. Ahadi

27'

T. MeroPenalty

38'

A. Ring

46'

V. Vuorinen← C. Sidibe

46'

P. Haikonen← J. Mabinda

50'

J. Nikki↳ O. Jama

56'

J. Nikki

58'

S. Baranov← F. Etu

64'

K. Isaksson↳ H. Olander

68'

E. Ingman← M. Ritari

69'

V. Ahola← K. Isaksson

71'

J. Holopainen← H. Kuosa

74'

E. Ingman↳ H. Noori

78'

I. Soderlund← J. Virtanen

82'

K. Harden← T. Mero

82'

M. Hyvonen← H. Noori

83'

J. Holopainen

85'

I. Soderlund↳ J. Holopainen

88'

S. Baranov↳ A. Ring

89'

J. Lietsa

90'

M. Ahadi↳ J. Holopainen

Klubi-04

JäPS

77

Mustafa

20

A

Olander

30

▼

Mabinda

2

Palmasto

4

⚽

Nikki

31

⚽2

▼

Isaksson

19

▼

Kuosa

6

A

Jama

14

Tapani

18

▼

Virtanen

26

⚽

Ahadi

30

Ramula

48

⚽

▼

98

53

49

56

▼

Ritari

57

A

Ring

58

A

▼

Noori

65

A

▼

Sidibe

97

⚽

▼

Mero

68

Nylund

Manager: A. Lalli

46'▲V. Vuorinen←▼C. Sidibe

58'▲S. Baranov←▼F. Etu

68'▲E. Ingman←▼M. Ritari

82'▲K. Harden←▼T. Mero

82'▲M. Hyvonen←▼H. Noori

Klubi-04 substitutes

89Haapanen51Harden67Ingman73Traore74Hyvonen77Rippon91Vuorinen92Ameen95Baranov

Manager: T. Kankkunen

46'▲P. Haikonen←▼J. Mabinda

69'▲V. Ahola←▼K. Isaksson

71'▲J. Holopainen←▼H. Kuosa

78'▲I. Soderlund←▼J. Virtanen

JäPS substitutes

1Laiho41Salo3Haikonen8Heidari10Ahola15Hvidberg17Sivunen21Holopainen27Soderlund

Ykkösliiga: Klubi-04 4–6 JäPS

JäPS beat Klubi-04 6-4 in Ykkösliiga on April 23, 2025.

Goals: F. Etu (1'), K. Isaksson (13', 64'), T. Mero (27' pen), J. Nikki (50'), E. Ingman (74'), J. Holopainen (83'), I. Soderlund (85'), S. Baranov (88'), M. Ahadi (90').

The match was played at Bolt Arena in Helsinki.

Klubi-04 vs JäPS — Ykkösliiga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ykkösliiga: Klubi-04 4–6 JäPS