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Klatovy vs Spartak Soběslav — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Klatovy
Klatovy
FT
2 – 1
Spartak Soběslav
Spartak Soběslav
9/14/20194. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 6Stadion Na Rozvoji (Klatovy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Klatovy42%
×Draw23%
Spartak Soběslav35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Klatovy
1.79
Spartak Soběslav
1.63

Klatovy creates 10% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 86 away

creates per match

Klatovy
1.89
Spartak Soběslav
1.73

allows per match

Klatovy
1.53
Spartak Soběslav
1.69

finishing

Klatovy+0.00on par
Spartak Soběslav+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klatovy ↓

Spartak Soběslav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Klatovy or draw
65%
Klatovy or Spartak Soběslav
77%
Draw or Spartak Soběslav
58%

Winning margin

Klatovy wins by 2+
22%
Spartak Soběslav wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Klatovy 1+ goals
83%
Klatovy 2+ goals
53%
Klatovy 3+ goals
26%
Spartak Soběslav 1+ goals
80%
Spartak Soběslav 2+ goals
48%
Spartak Soběslav 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Klatovy (draw refunded)
54%
Spartak Soběslav (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Klatovy at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

Spartak Soběslav away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Klatovy attack 1.89 + Spartak Soběslav defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.79

Spartak Soběslav attack 1.73 + Klatovy defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Klatovy scores more
42%
level
23%
Spartak Soběslav scores more
35%

Klatovy at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Klatovy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Klatovy 2 – 1 Spartak Soběslav

Klatovy beat Spartak Soběslav 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Na Rozvoji (Klatovy).