Kirchbichl 2–0 Natters: Result & Stats

Kirchbichl

FT

2 – 0

Natters

9/7/2019

Landesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 6SVK-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Kirchbichl44%

×Draw22%

Natters34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KirchbichlExpected goals in this matchNatters

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.70

Kirchbichl

1.96

Natters

1.70

Kirchbichl creates 15% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 44 away

1.73

creates per match

1.55

1.84

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Kirchbichl

1.73

Natters

1.55

allows per match

Kirchbichl

1.84

Natters

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kirchbichl+0.00on par

Natters+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kirchbichl ↓

Natters →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Kirchbichl or draw

66%

Kirchbichl or Natters

78%

Draw or Natters

56%

Winning margin

Kirchbichl wins by 2+

25%

Natters wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kirchbichl 1+ goals

86%

Kirchbichl 2+ goals

58%

Kirchbichl 3+ goals

31%

Natters 1+ goals

82%

Natters 2+ goals

51%

Natters 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Kirchbichl (draw refunded)

57%

Natters (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kirchbichl at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.84 · 45 matches

Natters away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.18 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kirchbichl attack 1.73 + Natters defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.96

Natters attack 1.55 + Kirchbichl defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kirchbichl scores more

44%

level

22%

Natters scores more

34%

Kirchbichl at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kirchbichl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff