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Kingston City vs Melbourne City II — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Kingston City
Kingston City
FT
0 – 2
Melbourne City II
Melbourne City II
5/13/2023Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 13The Grange Reserve [Clayton South]

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Kingston City29%
×Draw21%
Melbourne City II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kingston City
1.54
Melbourne City II
2.06

Melbourne City II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 39 away

creates per match

Kingston City
1.61
Melbourne City II
2.03

allows per match

Kingston City
2.09
Melbourne City II
1.46

finishing

Kingston City+0.00on par
Melbourne City II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingston City ↓

Melbourne City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Kingston City or draw
50%
Kingston City or Melbourne City II
79%
Draw or Melbourne City II
71%

Winning margin

Kingston City wins by 2+
13%
Melbourne City II wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Kingston City 1+ goals
79%
Kingston City 2+ goals
45%
Kingston City 3+ goals
20%
Melbourne City II 1+ goals
87%
Melbourne City II 2+ goals
61%
Melbourne City II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Kingston City (draw refunded)
37%
Melbourne City II (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingston City at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.09 · 57 matches

Melbourne City II away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingston City attack 1.61 + Melbourne City II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Melbourne City II attack 2.03 + Kingston City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kingston City scores more
29%
level
21%
Melbourne City II scores more
50%

Melbourne City II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Melbourne City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kingston City vs Melbourne City II

Melbourne City II beat Kingston City 2-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at The Grange Reserve [Clayton South] in Melbourne.