King's Lynn Town vs Buxton — League #50 2026
League #50 · National League North - 11
Buxton score first in only 18% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 6+ matches
King's Lynn Town43%
Buxton34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
King's Lynn Town creates 15% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 15 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over62
- Under38
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes64
- No36
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
King's Lynn Town ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
King's Lynn Town at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches
Buxton away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
King's Lynn Town attack 1.83 + Buxton defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.72
Buxton attack 1.67 + King's Lynn Town defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
King's Lynn Town at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "King's Lynn Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- King's Lynn Town and Buxton have never met before
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
No previous meetings between these teams
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Worksop TownIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
King's Lynn Town host Buxton on Saturday, 10 October 2026 at 14:00. The match is part of the League #50 2026/2027 season.
Preview: King's Lynn Town host Buxton
October 10, 2026: King's Lynn Town take on Buxton in League #50. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.