Kilmarnock 0–0 ST Mirren: Result & Stats

Kilmarnock

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ST Mirren

7/13/2018

League Cup · Group Stage - 1Rugby Park (Kilmarnock)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kilmarnock44%

×Draw25%

ST Mirren31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KilmarnockExpected goals in this matchST Mirren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.25

Kilmarnock

1.53

ST Mirren

1.25

Kilmarnock creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

1.92

creates per match

1.57

0.92

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Kilmarnock

1.92

ST Mirren

1.57

allows per match

Kilmarnock

0.92

ST Mirren

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kilmarnock+0.00on par

ST Mirren+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilmarnock ↓

ST Mirren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kilmarnock or draw

69%

Kilmarnock or ST Mirren

75%

Draw or ST Mirren

56%

Winning margin

Kilmarnock wins by 2+

22%

ST Mirren wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kilmarnock 1+ goals

78%

Kilmarnock 2+ goals

45%

Kilmarnock 3+ goals

20%

ST Mirren 1+ goals

71%

ST Mirren 2+ goals

36%

ST Mirren 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Kilmarnock (draw refunded)

58%

ST Mirren (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilmarnock at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

ST Mirren away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilmarnock attack 1.92 + ST Mirren defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.53

ST Mirren attack 1.57 + Kilmarnock defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kilmarnock scores more

44%

level

25%

ST Mirren scores more

31%

Kilmarnock at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kilmarnock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

J. King← J. Kirkpatrick

69'

G. Kiltie← R. McKenzie

70'

M. Ndjoli← E. Brophy

81'

J. Kellerman← R. Flynn

83'

C. Cooke← C. Smith

84'

C. Burke← J. Jones

Kilmarnock

ST

1

2

15

3

24

4

8

▼

Flynn

14

▼

Kirkpatri

28

MacPherso

10

▼

18

1

5

17

18

22

6

8

11

▼

Jones

19

Erwin

7

▼

McKenzie

25

▼

Brophy

Manager: S. Clarke

69'▲G. Kiltie←▼R. McKenzie

70'▲M. Ndjoli←▼E. Brophy

84'▲C. Burke←▼J. Jones

Kilmarnock substitutes

10Kiltie12Ndjoli29Burke21Frizzell23Thomas14Higgins13MacKay

Manager: A. Stubbs

55'▲J. King←▼J. Kirkpatrick

81'▲J. Kellerman←▼R. Flynn

83'▲C. Cooke←▼C. Smith

ST Mirren substitutes

23King17Kellerman20Cooke25Rogers6MacKenzie5Heaton19Stewart