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Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone — Premiership 2018

Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
ST Johnstone
ST Johnstone
12/23/2023PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 19The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Kilmarnock48%
×Draw26%
ST Johnstone27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kilmarnock
1.53
ST Johnstone
1.07

Kilmarnock creates 43% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 121 away

creates per match

Kilmarnock
1.48
ST Johnstone
0.92

allows per match

Kilmarnock
1.22
ST Johnstone
1.58

finishing

Kilmarnock+0.00on par
ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilmarnock ↓

ST Johnstone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kilmarnock or draw
73%
Kilmarnock or ST Johnstone
74%
Draw or ST Johnstone
52%

Winning margin

Kilmarnock wins by 2+
24%
ST Johnstone wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kilmarnock 1+ goals
78%
Kilmarnock 2+ goals
45%
Kilmarnock 3+ goals
20%
ST Johnstone 1+ goals
66%
ST Johnstone 2+ goals
29%
ST Johnstone 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kilmarnock (draw refunded)
64%
ST Johnstone (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilmarnock at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 117 matches

ST Johnstone away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.58 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilmarnock attack 1.48 + ST Johnstone defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.53

ST Johnstone attack 0.92 + Kilmarnock defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kilmarnock scores more
48%
level
26%
ST Johnstone scores more
27%

Kilmarnock at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kilmarnock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership: Kilmarnock 2–1 ST Johnstone

Kilmarnock beat ST Johnstone 2-1 in Premiership on December 23, 2023.

The match was played at The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park in Kilmarnock.