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Kilmarnock vs Rangers — Premiership 2018

Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Rangers
Rangers
2/28/2024PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 28The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Kilmarnock38%
×Draw24%
Rangers38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kilmarnock
1.54
Rangers
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Kilmarnock
1.77
Rangers
1.48

allows per match

Kilmarnock
1.55
Rangers
1.31

finishing

Kilmarnock+0.08on par
Rangers+0.67scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilmarnock ↓

Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kilmarnock or draw
62%
Kilmarnock or Rangers
76%
Draw or Rangers
62%

Winning margin

Kilmarnock wins by 2+
19%
Rangers wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kilmarnock 1+ goals
79%
Kilmarnock 2+ goals
45%
Kilmarnock 3+ goals
20%
Rangers 1+ goals
78%
Rangers 2+ goals
45%
Rangers 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kilmarnock (draw refunded)
51%
Rangers (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilmarnock at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.55 · 13 matches

Rangers away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilmarnock attack 1.77 + Rangers defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.54

Rangers attack 1.48 + Kilmarnock defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kilmarnock scores more
38%
level
24%
Rangers scores more
38%

Kilmarnock at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kilmarnock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership: Kilmarnock 1–2 Rangers

Rangers beat Kilmarnock 2-1 in Premiership on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park in Kilmarnock.