Kilmarnock 1–0 Livingston: Result & Stats

Kilmarnock

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Livingston

2/7/2024

Premiership · 1st Phase - 25The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Kilmarnock51%

×Draw23%

Livingston26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KilmarnockExpected goals in this matchLivingston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.29

Kilmarnock

1.87

Livingston

1.29

Kilmarnock creates 45% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

1.77

creates per match

1.02

1.55

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Kilmarnock

1.77

Livingston

1.02

allows per match

Kilmarnock

1.55

Livingston

1.97

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Kilmarnock+0.08on par

Livingston-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilmarnock ↓

Livingston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Kilmarnock or draw

74%

Kilmarnock or Livingston

77%

Draw or Livingston

49%

Winning margin

Kilmarnock wins by 2+

29%

Livingston wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kilmarnock 1+ goals

85%

Kilmarnock 2+ goals

56%

Kilmarnock 3+ goals

29%

Livingston 1+ goals

72%

Livingston 2+ goals

37%

Livingston 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kilmarnock (draw refunded)

66%

Livingston (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilmarnock at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.55 · 13 matches

Livingston away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.97 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilmarnock attack 1.77 + Livingston defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.87

Livingston attack 1.02 + Kilmarnock defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kilmarnock scores more

51%

level

23%

Livingston scores more

26%

Kilmarnock at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kilmarnock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff