Kilmarnock 0–1 Heart Of Midlothian: Result & Stats

Kilmarnock

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Heart Of Midlothian

12/2/2023

Premiership · 1st Phase - 15The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Kilmarnock33%

×Draw24%

Heart Of Midlothian42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KilmarnockExpected goals in this matchHeart Of Midlothian

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.58

Kilmarnock

1.38

Heart Of Midlothian

1.58

Heart Of Midlothian creates 14% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

1.77

creates per match

1.60

1.55

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Kilmarnock

1.77

Heart Of Midlothian

1.60

allows per match

Kilmarnock

1.55

Heart Of Midlothian

0.98

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Kilmarnock+0.08on par

Heart Of Midlothian-0.20scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilmarnock ↓

Heart Of Midlothian →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kilmarnock or draw

58%

Kilmarnock or Heart Of Midlothian

76%

Draw or Heart Of Midlothian

67%

Winning margin

Kilmarnock wins by 2+

15%

Heart Of Midlothian wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Kilmarnock 1+ goals

75%

Kilmarnock 2+ goals

40%

Kilmarnock 3+ goals

16%

Heart Of Midlothian 1+ goals

79%

Heart Of Midlothian 2+ goals

47%

Heart Of Midlothian 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Kilmarnock (draw refunded)

44%

Heart Of Midlothian (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilmarnock at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.55 · 13 matches

Heart Of Midlothian away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.98 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilmarnock attack 1.77 + Heart Of Midlothian defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.38

Heart Of Midlothian attack 1.60 + Kilmarnock defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kilmarnock scores more

33%

level

24%

Heart Of Midlothian scores more

42%

Heart Of Midlothian at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Heart Of Midlothian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff