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Kilmarnock vs Hamilton Academical — League Cup 2025

Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
Preview
18:45
Hamilton Academical
Hamilton Academical
7/21/2026League CupLeague Cup · Group StageRugby Park
46%
Kilmarnock
model favours
46%27%28%

Kilmarnock are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kilmarnock46%
×Draw27%
Hamilton Academical28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kilmarnock
1.42
Hamilton Academical
1.04

Kilmarnock creates 37% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kilmarnock
2.33
Hamilton Academical
1.75

allows per match

Kilmarnock
0.33
Hamilton Academical
0.50

finishing

Kilmarnock+0.00on par
Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilmarnock ↓

Hamilton Academical →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kilmarnock or draw
72%
Kilmarnock or Hamilton Academical
73%
Draw or Hamilton Academical
54%

Winning margin

Kilmarnock wins by 2+
22%
Hamilton Academical wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kilmarnock 1+ goals
76%
Kilmarnock 2+ goals
41%
Kilmarnock 3+ goals
17%
Hamilton Academical 1+ goals
65%
Hamilton Academical 2+ goals
28%
Hamilton Academical 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kilmarnock (draw refunded)
62%
Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilmarnock at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Hamilton Academical away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilmarnock attack 2.33 + Hamilton Academical defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Hamilton Academical attack 1.75 + Kilmarnock defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kilmarnock scores more
46%
level
27%
Hamilton Academical scores more
28%

Kilmarnock at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kilmarnock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Hamilton Academical are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • 90% of Hamilton Academical’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (68% and 90% over 2.5)
  • Hamilton Academical have scored in 10 games running
  • Kilmarnock score first in only 28% of matches
  • Even after scoring first, Kilmarnock win only 46%

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Kilmarnock
DWWWW
Academical
WWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kilmarnock host Hamilton Academical

July 21, 2026: Kilmarnock take on Hamilton Academical in League Cup. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kilmarnock host Hamilton Academical at Rugby Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.