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Kilmarnock vs Dundee — Premiership 2018

Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dundee
Dundee
12/30/2023PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 21The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Kilmarnock47%
×Draw24%
Dundee30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kilmarnock
1.72
Dundee
1.33

Kilmarnock creates 29% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Kilmarnock
1.77
Dundee
1.10

allows per match

Kilmarnock
1.55
Dundee
1.67

finishing

Kilmarnock+0.08on par
Dundee-0.39scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilmarnock ↓

Dundee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kilmarnock or draw
70%
Kilmarnock or Dundee
76%
Draw or Dundee
53%

Winning margin

Kilmarnock wins by 2+
25%
Dundee wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kilmarnock 1+ goals
82%
Kilmarnock 2+ goals
51%
Kilmarnock 3+ goals
25%
Dundee 1+ goals
74%
Dundee 2+ goals
38%
Dundee 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kilmarnock (draw refunded)
61%
Dundee (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilmarnock at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.55 · 13 matches

Dundee away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.67 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilmarnock attack 1.77 + Dundee defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.72

Dundee attack 1.10 + Kilmarnock defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kilmarnock scores more
47%
level
24%
Dundee scores more
30%

Kilmarnock at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kilmarnock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership: Kilmarnock 2–2 Dundee

Kilmarnock and Dundee drew 2-2 in Premiership on December 30, 2023.

The match was played at The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park in Kilmarnock.