Kilmarnock 2–1 Celtic: Result & Stats | Premiership

Kilmarnock

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Celtic

12/10/2023

Premiership · 1st Phase - 17The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Kilmarnock35%

×Draw23%

Celtic41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KilmarnockExpected goals in this matchCeltic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.70

Kilmarnock

1.56

Celtic

1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

1.77

creates per match

1.84

1.55

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Kilmarnock

1.77

Celtic

1.84

allows per match

Kilmarnock

1.55

Celtic

1.34

+0.08on par

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Kilmarnock+0.08on par

Celtic+0.16scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilmarnock ↓

Celtic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Kilmarnock or draw

59%

Kilmarnock or Celtic

77%

Draw or Celtic

65%

Winning margin

Kilmarnock wins by 2+

17%

Celtic wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Kilmarnock 1+ goals

79%

Kilmarnock 2+ goals

46%

Kilmarnock 3+ goals

21%

Celtic 1+ goals

82%

Celtic 2+ goals

51%

Celtic 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Kilmarnock (draw refunded)

46%

Celtic (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilmarnock at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.55 · 13 matches

Celtic away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.34 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilmarnock attack 1.77 + Celtic defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.56

Celtic attack 1.84 + Kilmarnock defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kilmarnock scores more

35%

level

23%

Celtic scores more

41%

Celtic at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff