Kilmarnock 2–0 Aberdeen: Result & Stats

Kilmarnock

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Aberdeen

M. Watkins 64'

K. Vassell 45+5'

10/29/2023

Premiership · 1st Phase - 10The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Kilmarnock49%

×Draw23%

Aberdeen28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KilmarnockExpected goals in this matchAberdeen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.31

Kilmarnock

1.80

Aberdeen

1.31

Kilmarnock creates 37% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

1.74

creates per match

1.07

1.56

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Kilmarnock

1.74

Aberdeen

1.07

allows per match

Kilmarnock

1.56

Aberdeen

1.86

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Kilmarnock+0.05on par

Aberdeen-0.30scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilmarnock ↓

Aberdeen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Kilmarnock or draw

72%

Kilmarnock or Aberdeen

77%

Draw or Aberdeen

51%

Winning margin

Kilmarnock wins by 2+

27%

Aberdeen wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kilmarnock 1+ goals

83%

Kilmarnock 2+ goals

54%

Kilmarnock 3+ goals

27%

Aberdeen 1+ goals

73%

Aberdeen 2+ goals

38%

Aberdeen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kilmarnock (draw refunded)

64%

Aberdeen (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilmarnock at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.56 · 14 matches

Aberdeen away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.86 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilmarnock attack 1.74 + Aberdeen defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.80

Aberdeen attack 1.07 + Kilmarnock defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kilmarnock scores more

49%

level

23%

Aberdeen scores more

28%

Kilmarnock at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kilmarnock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

K. Vassell

Kilmarnock · F

7.6

Match Events

45+3'

Graeme Shinnie

45+1'

Stefan Gartenmann

45+5'

K. Vassell↳ D. Armstrong

46'

R. Duncan← J. MacKenzie

51'

R. Deas← J. Wright

55'

D. Polvara← G. Shinnie

55'

L. Clarkson← C. Barron

64'

M. Watkins

65'

L. Donnelly← M. Watkins

65'

R. McKenzie← L. Polworth

71'

E. Sokler← J. McGrath

85'

Bradley Lyons

89'

Ester Sokler

90'

A. Dallas← D. Armstrong

90'

T. Davies← M. Kennedy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KilmarnockAberdeen

Overview

49%Possession51%

19Total Shots5

9Corners3

12Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots5

8On Target1

6Off Target1

5Blocked3

14Inside Box4

5Outside Box1

Passing

49%Possession51%

308Total Passes335

179Accurate Passes197

58%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2