Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kilia Kiel vs SV Eichede — League #744 2026

Kilia Kiel
Kilia Kiel
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
SV Eichede
SV Eichede
8/13/2022League #744League #744 · Schleswig-Holstein - 5Stadion Waldwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kilia Kiel25%
×Draw21%
SV Eichede54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kilia Kiel
1.37
SV Eichede
2.12

SV Eichede creates 55% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

creates per match

Kilia Kiel
2.00
SV Eichede
2.09

allows per match

Kilia Kiel
2.14
SV Eichede
0.74

finishing

Kilia Kiel+0.00on par
SV Eichede+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilia Kiel ↓

SV Eichede →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kilia Kiel or draw
46%
Kilia Kiel or SV Eichede
79%
Draw or SV Eichede
75%

Winning margin

Kilia Kiel wins by 2+
10%
SV Eichede wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Kilia Kiel 1+ goals
75%
Kilia Kiel 2+ goals
40%
Kilia Kiel 3+ goals
16%
SV Eichede 1+ goals
88%
SV Eichede 2+ goals
62%
SV Eichede 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Kilia Kiel (draw refunded)
31%
SV Eichede (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilia Kiel at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

SV Eichede away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilia Kiel attack 2.00 + SV Eichede defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.37

SV Eichede attack 2.09 + Kilia Kiel defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kilia Kiel scores more
25%
level
21%
SV Eichede scores more
54%

SV Eichede at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "SV Eichede will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #744: Kilia Kiel 0–3 SV Eichede

SV Eichede beat Kilia Kiel 3-0 in League #744 on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Waldwiese in Kiel.