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Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis — Super League 1 2018

Kifisia
Kifisia
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Asteras Tripolis
Asteras Tripolis
11/26/2023Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 12Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kifisia39%
×Draw27%
Asteras Tripolis34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kifisia
1.31
Asteras Tripolis
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 131 away

creates per match

Kifisia
1.26
Asteras Tripolis
0.84

allows per match

Kifisia
1.59
Asteras Tripolis
1.36

finishing

Kifisia+0.00on par
Asteras Tripolis+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kifisia ↓

Asteras Tripolis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kifisia or draw
66%
Kifisia or Asteras Tripolis
73%
Draw or Asteras Tripolis
61%

Winning margin

Kifisia wins by 2+
17%
Asteras Tripolis wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kifisia 1+ goals
73%
Kifisia 2+ goals
38%
Kifisia 3+ goals
14%
Asteras Tripolis 1+ goals
70%
Asteras Tripolis 2+ goals
34%
Asteras Tripolis 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kifisia (draw refunded)
53%
Asteras Tripolis (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kifisia at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

Asteras Tripolis away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.36 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kifisia attack 1.26 + Asteras Tripolis defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Asteras Tripolis attack 0.84 + Kifisia defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kifisia scores more
39%
level
27%
Asteras Tripolis scores more
34%

Kifisia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kifisia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kifisia vs Asteras Tripolis

Asteras Tripolis beat Kifisia 3-1 in Super League 1 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos in Athens.