Kidderminster Harriers 6–0 Southport

Kidderminster Harriers

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Southport

C. Moyo 90+5'

E. Freemantle 87'

A. Morgan-Smith 77'

A. Hemmings 68', 17'

O. Sterling-James 30'

4/9/2022

League #50 · North - 36Aggborough Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kidderminster Harriers53%

×Draw25%

Southport22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kidderminster HarriersExpected goals in this matchSouthport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.93

Kidderminster Harriers

1.61

Southport

0.93

Kidderminster Harriers creates 73% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 34 away

1.57

creates per match

1.15

0.71

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Kidderminster Harriers

1.57

Southport

1.15

allows per match

Kidderminster Harriers

0.71

Southport

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kidderminster Harriers+0.00on par

Southport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kidderminster Harriers ↓

Southport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kidderminster Harriers or draw

78%

Kidderminster Harriers or Southport

75%

Draw or Southport

47%

Winning margin

Kidderminster Harriers wins by 2+

28%

Southport wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kidderminster Harriers 1+ goals

80%

Kidderminster Harriers 2+ goals

48%

Kidderminster Harriers 3+ goals

22%

Southport 1+ goals

61%

Southport 2+ goals

24%

Southport 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kidderminster Harriers (draw refunded)

71%

Southport (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kidderminster Harriers at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Southport away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kidderminster Harriers attack 1.57 + Southport defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.61

Southport attack 1.15 + Kidderminster Harriers defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kidderminster Harriers scores more

53%

level

25%

Southport scores more

22%

Kidderminster Harriers at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kidderminster Harriers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

28'

30'

68'

72'

E. Freemantle← M. Stenson

72'

R. Benjamin← D. Tharme

77'

A. Morgan-Smith

81'

C. Moyo← A. Morgan-Smith

86'

J. White← O. Sterling-James

87'

E. Freemantle

90+5'

C. Moyo

Kidderminster

Southport

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

Morgan-Sm

▼

Stenson

⚽

▼

Sterling-

Manager: R. Penn

72'▲E. Freemantle←▼M. Stenson

81'▲C. Moyo←▼A. Morgan-Smith

86'▲J. White←▼O. Sterling-James

Kidderminster Harriers substitutes

FreemantleMoyoWhiteLoweCarrington

Manager: L. Watson

28'▲J. Hmami←▼J. Doyle

72'▲R. Benjamin←▼D. Tharme

Southport substitutes

HmamiBenjaminMcMillanWoodsNewell