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Kickers Offenbach vs Bayer Leverkusen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kickers Offenbach
Kickers Offenbach
Preview
13:00
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
7/25/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
41%
Bayer Leverkusen
model favours
38%21%41%

Both teams score in 70% of Bayer Leverkusen’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
76%
over 2.5 goals
75%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kickers Offenbach38%
×Draw21%
Bayer Leverkusen41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kickers Offenbach
1.96
Bayer Leverkusen
2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kickers Offenbach
2.25
Bayer Leverkusen
3.33

allows per match

Kickers Offenbach
0.75
Bayer Leverkusen
1.67

finishing

Kickers Offenbach+0.00on par
Bayer Leverkusen+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kickers Offenbach ↓

Bayer Leverkusen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Kickers Offenbach or draw
59%
Kickers Offenbach or Bayer Leverkusen
79%
Draw or Bayer Leverkusen
62%

Winning margin

Kickers Offenbach wins by 2+
20%
Bayer Leverkusen wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Kickers Offenbach 1+ goals
86%
Kickers Offenbach 2+ goals
58%
Kickers Offenbach 3+ goals
31%
Bayer Leverkusen 1+ goals
87%
Bayer Leverkusen 2+ goals
60%
Bayer Leverkusen 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Kickers Offenbach (draw refunded)
48%
Bayer Leverkusen (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kickers Offenbach at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Bayer Leverkusen away — creates 3.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kickers Offenbach attack 2.25 + Bayer Leverkusen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.96

Bayer Leverkusen attack 3.33 + Kickers Offenbach defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kickers Offenbach scores more
38%
level
21%
Bayer Leverkusen scores more
41%

Bayer Leverkusen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Kickers Offenbach and Bayer Leverkusen have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Offenbach
WLLL
Leverkusen
WDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kickers Offenbach host Bayer Leverkusen

July 25, 2026: Kickers Offenbach take on Bayer Leverkusen in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.