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KÍ II vs HB II — 1. Deild 2019

KÍ II
KÍ II
FT
2 – 1
HB II
HB II
10/1/20191. Deild1. Deild · Round 22Injector Arena (Klaksvík, Borðoy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

KÍ II51%
×Draw21%
HB II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KÍ II
2.13
HB II
1.53

KÍ II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 90 away

creates per match

KÍ II
2.02
HB II
1.47

allows per match

KÍ II
1.59
HB II
2.23

finishing

KÍ II+0.00on par
HB II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KÍ II ↓

HB II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

KÍ II or draw
72%
KÍ II or HB II
79%
Draw or HB II
49%

Winning margin

KÍ II wins by 2+
30%
HB II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

KÍ II 1+ goals
88%
KÍ II 2+ goals
63%
KÍ II 3+ goals
35%
HB II 1+ goals
78%
HB II 2+ goals
45%
HB II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

KÍ II (draw refunded)
65%
HB II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KÍ II at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.59 · 95 matches

HB II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.23 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KÍ II attack 2.02 + HB II defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.13

HB II attack 1.47 + KÍ II defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

KÍ II scores more
51%
level
21%
HB II scores more
28%

KÍ II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "KÍ II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KÍ II 2 – 1 HB II

KÍ II beat HB II 2-1 in 1. Deild on October 1, 2019.

The match was played at Injector Arena (Klaksvík, Borðoy).