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Khujand vs Sardor Tursunzoda — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Khujand
Khujand
Preview
13:00
Sardor Tursunzoda
Sardor Tursunzoda
8/28/2026Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 15
55%
Khujand
model favours
55%22%23%
1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Khujand55%
×Draw22%
Sardor Tursunzoda23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khujand
1.94
Sardor Tursunzoda
1.19

Khujand creates 63% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 7 away

creates per match

Khujand
1.59
Sardor Tursunzoda
1.43

allows per match

Khujand
0.96
Sardor Tursunzoda
2.29

finishing

Khujand+0.00on par
Sardor Tursunzoda+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khujand ↓

Sardor Tursunzoda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Khujand or draw
77%
Khujand or Sardor Tursunzoda
78%
Draw or Sardor Tursunzoda
45%

Winning margin

Khujand wins by 2+
32%
Sardor Tursunzoda wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Khujand 1+ goals
86%
Khujand 2+ goals
58%
Khujand 3+ goals
30%
Sardor Tursunzoda 1+ goals
70%
Sardor Tursunzoda 2+ goals
33%
Sardor Tursunzoda 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Khujand (draw refunded)
70%
Sardor Tursunzoda (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khujand at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

Sardor Tursunzoda away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khujand attack 1.59 + Sardor Tursunzoda defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.94

Sardor Tursunzoda attack 1.43 + Khujand defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Khujand scores more
55%
level
22%
Sardor Tursunzoda scores more
23%

Khujand at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Khujand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Khujand
WLDWL
Tursunzoda
LDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Khujand face Sardor Tursunzoda (Vysshaya Liga)

Vysshaya Liga returns with Khujand hosting Sardor Tursunzoda. Match starts August 28, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.