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Khujand vs CSKA Pomir — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Khujand
Khujand
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CSKA Pomir
CSKA Pomir
11/9/2022Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Championship Round - 3Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Khujand45%
×Draw27%
CSKA Pomir28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khujand
1.35
CSKA Pomir
1.01

Khujand creates 34% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 94 away

creates per match

Khujand
1.64
CSKA Pomir
1.12

allows per match

Khujand
0.90
CSKA Pomir
1.07

finishing

Khujand+0.00on par
CSKA Pomir+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khujand ↓

CSKA Pomir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Khujand or draw
72%
Khujand or CSKA Pomir
73%
Draw or CSKA Pomir
55%

Winning margin

Khujand wins by 2+
21%
CSKA Pomir wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Khujand 1+ goals
74%
Khujand 2+ goals
39%
Khujand 3+ goals
15%
CSKA Pomir 1+ goals
64%
CSKA Pomir 2+ goals
27%
CSKA Pomir 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Khujand (draw refunded)
61%
CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khujand at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.90 · 98 matches

CSKA Pomir away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.07 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khujand attack 1.64 + CSKA Pomir defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.35

CSKA Pomir attack 1.12 + Khujand defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Khujand scores more
45%
level
27%
CSKA Pomir scores more
28%

Khujand at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Khujand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khujand vs CSKA Pomir

Khujand beat CSKA Pomir 3-0 in Vysshaya Liga on November 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti in Khujand.