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Khosilot Farkhor vs Parvoz — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Khosilot Farkhor
Khosilot Farkhor
Preview
13:00
Parvoz
Parvoz
9/18/2026Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 17
58%
Khosilot Farkhor
model favours
58%22%20%

Parvoz have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Khosilot Farkhor58%
×Draw22%
Parvoz20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khosilot Farkhor
1.98
Parvoz
1.07

Khosilot Farkhor creates 85% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 32 away

creates per match

Khosilot Farkhor
1.71
Parvoz
0.59

allows per match

Khosilot Farkhor
1.55
Parvoz
2.25

finishing

Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par
Parvoz+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khosilot Farkhor ↓

Parvoz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Khosilot Farkhor or draw
80%
Khosilot Farkhor or Parvoz
78%
Draw or Parvoz
42%

Winning margin

Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+
35%
Parvoz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals
86%
Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals
59%
Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals
31%
Parvoz 1+ goals
66%
Parvoz 2+ goals
29%
Parvoz 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)
74%
Parvoz (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khosilot Farkhor at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Parvoz away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.71 + Parvoz defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.98

Parvoz attack 0.59 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Khosilot Farkhor scores more
58%
level
22%
Parvoz scores more
20%

Khosilot Farkhor at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Khosilot Farkhor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 4.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Farkhor
WWWDW
Parvoz
DLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Khosilot Farkhor host Parvoz

September 18, 2026: Khosilot Farkhor take on Parvoz in Vysshaya Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.