Khosilot Farkhor vs Istaravshan

Khosilot Farkhor

Preview

14:00

Istaravshan

8/2/2026

Vysshaya Liga · Round 13

49%

Khosilot Farkhor

model favours

49%24%27%

Istaravshan win just 0% of their away games

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

55%

over 2.5 goals

56%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Khosilot Farkhor49%

×Draw24%

Istaravshan27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khosilot FarkhorExpected goals in this matchIstaravshan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.18

Khosilot Farkhor

1.69

Istaravshan

1.18

Khosilot Farkhor creates 43% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 43 away

1.64

creates per match

0.88

1.48

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Khosilot Farkhor

1.64

Istaravshan

0.88

allows per match

Khosilot Farkhor

1.48

Istaravshan

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par

Istaravshan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khosilot Farkhor ↓

Istaravshan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Khosilot Farkhor or draw

73%

Khosilot Farkhor or Istaravshan

76%

Draw or Istaravshan

51%

Winning margin

Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+

26%

Istaravshan wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals

82%

Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals

50%

Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals

24%

Istaravshan 1+ goals

69%

Istaravshan 2+ goals

33%

Istaravshan 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)

65%

Istaravshan (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khosilot Farkhor at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.48 · 33 matches

Istaravshan away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.74 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.64 + Istaravshan defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.69

Istaravshan attack 0.88 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Khosilot Farkhor scores more

49%

level

24%

Istaravshan scores more

27%

Khosilot Farkhor at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Khosilot Farkhor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Khosilot Farkhor sit 2, Istaravshan 12 in the table
Their last 3 meetings averaged just 1.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Farkhor

WWWDW

Istaravshan

DDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff