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Khooshe Talaee Saveh vs Mes Kerman — Azadegan League 2018

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
FT
0 – 0
Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
Unknown 53'
12/22/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 6Shahid Chamran Saveh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh38%
×Draw34%
Mes Kerman29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.94
Mes Kerman
0.78

Khooshe Talaee Saveh creates 21% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 101 away

creates per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.20
Mes Kerman
0.76

allows per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.80
Mes Kerman
0.67

finishing

Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par
Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooshe Talaee Saveh ↓

Mes Kerman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Khooshe Talaee Saveh or draw
71%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh or Mes Kerman
66%
Draw or Mes Kerman
62%

Winning margin

Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
14%
Mes Kerman wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
61%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
24%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
7%
Mes Kerman 1+ goals
54%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
18%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
57%
Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 82 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.76, concedes 0.67 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 1.20 + Mes Kerman defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.94

Mes Kerman attack 0.76 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
38%
level
34%
Mes Kerman scores more
29%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Khooshe Talaee Saveh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Khooshe Talaee Saveh 0–0 Mes Kerman

Khooshe Talaee Saveh and Mes Kerman drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on December 22, 2020.

Goals: ? (53').

The match was played at Shahid Chamran Saveh Stadium in Saveh.