Khonkaen 1–1 Udon Thani: Result & Stats

Khonkaen

FT

1 – 1

Udon Thani

4/21/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 10Khon Kaen Stadium (Khon Kaen)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Khonkaen51%

×Draw24%

Udon Thani25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhonkaenExpected goals in this matchUdon Thani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.12

Khonkaen

1.69

Udon Thani

1.12

Khonkaen creates 51% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 82 away

1.45

creates per match

1.15

1.09

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Khonkaen

1.45

Udon Thani

1.15

allows per match

Khonkaen

1.09

Udon Thani

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khonkaen+0.00on par

Udon Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khonkaen ↓

Udon Thani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Khonkaen or draw

75%

Khonkaen or Udon Thani

76%

Draw or Udon Thani

49%

Winning margin

Khonkaen wins by 2+

27%

Udon Thani wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Khonkaen 1+ goals

82%

Khonkaen 2+ goals

50%

Khonkaen 3+ goals

24%

Udon Thani 1+ goals

67%

Udon Thani 2+ goals

31%

Udon Thani 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Khonkaen (draw refunded)

67%

Udon Thani (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khonkaen at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Udon Thani away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.94 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khonkaen attack 1.45 + Udon Thani defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.69

Udon Thani attack 1.15 + Khonkaen defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Khonkaen scores more

51%

level

24%

Udon Thani scores more

25%

Khonkaen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Khonkaen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff