Khimki 1–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl: Result & Stats

Khimki

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shinnik Yaroslavl

11/10/2018

First League · Round 21Arena Khimki (Khimki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Khimki52%

×Draw25%

Shinnik Yaroslavl23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhimkiExpected goals in this matchShinnik Yaroslavl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.99

Khimki

1.60

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.99

Khimki creates 62% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 123 away

1.72

creates per match

0.99

1.00

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Khimki

1.72

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.99

allows per match

Khimki

1.00

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Khimki or draw

77%

Khimki or Shinnik Yaroslavl

75%

Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl

48%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+

27%

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals

80%

Khimki 2+ goals

47%

Khimki 3+ goals

22%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

63%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

26%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)

69%

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.00 · 54 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.72 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.60

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Khimki defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Khimki scores more

52%

level

25%

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

23%

Khimki at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff