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Khimki vs Krasnodar 2 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Khimki
Khimki
Canc
13:00
Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
1/24/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Hotel Rixos Premium Futbol Sahası

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Khimki59%
×Draw19%
Krasnodar 221%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki
2.37
Krasnodar 2
1.36

Khimki creates 74% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

creates per match

Khimki
1.94
Krasnodar 2
1.60

allows per match

Khimki
1.13
Krasnodar 2
2.80

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par
Krasnodar 2+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Krasnodar 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Khimki or draw
79%
Khimki or Krasnodar 2
81%
Draw or Krasnodar 2
41%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+
38%
Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals
91%
Khimki 2+ goals
68%
Khimki 3+ goals
42%
Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
74%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
39%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)
74%
Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Krasnodar 2 away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.94 + Krasnodar 2 defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.37

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.60 + Khimki defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Khimki scores more
59%
level
19%
Krasnodar 2 scores more
21%

Khimki at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Khimki host Krasnodar 2

January 24, 2024: Khimki take on Krasnodar 2 in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Khimki host Krasnodar 2 at Hotel Rixos Premium Futbol Sahası.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.