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Kheybar Khorramabad vs Malavan — Azadegan League 2018

Kheybar Khorramabad
Kheybar Khorramabad
FT
2 – 2
Malavan
Malavan
A. Rostami 84', 45+1' (pen)
V. Heidarieh 90+3'
Z. Mahya 45+4' (pen)
12/16/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 5Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kheybar Khorramabad53%
×Draw28%
Malavan19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kheybar Khorramabad
1.36
Malavan
0.70

Kheybar Khorramabad creates 94% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 51 away

creates per match

Kheybar Khorramabad
1.67
Malavan
0.73

allows per match

Kheybar Khorramabad
0.66
Malavan
1.06

finishing

Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par
Malavan+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kheybar Khorramabad ↓

Malavan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kheybar Khorramabad or draw
81%
Kheybar Khorramabad or Malavan
72%
Draw or Malavan
47%

Winning margin

Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+
26%
Malavan wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals
74%
Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals
39%
Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals
16%
Malavan 1+ goals
50%
Malavan 2+ goals
16%
Malavan 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)
73%
Malavan (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kheybar Khorramabad at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.66 · 67 matches

Malavan away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.67 + Malavan defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.36

Malavan attack 0.73 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kheybar Khorramabad scores more
53%
level
28%
Malavan scores more
19%

Kheybar Khorramabad at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kheybar Khorramabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
A. RostamiPenalty
45+4'
Z. MahyaPenalty
84'
A. Rostami
90+3'
V. Heidarieh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Kheybar Khorramabad 2–2 Malavan

Kheybar Khorramabad and Malavan drew 2-2 in Azadegan League on December 16, 2020.

Goals: A. Rostami (45+1' pen, 84'), Z. Mahya (45+4' pen), V. Heidarieh (90+3').

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Khorramabad.