Khenchela 2–1 ASO Chlef: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Khenchela

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

ASO Chlef

12/29/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 11Stade Hamam Ammar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Khenchela49%

×Draw29%

ASO Chlef23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhenchelaExpected goals in this matchASO Chlef

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.79

Khenchela

1.31

ASO Chlef

0.79

Khenchela creates 66% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 106 away

1.23

creates per match

0.92

0.65

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Khenchela

1.23

ASO Chlef

0.92

allows per match

Khenchela

0.65

ASO Chlef

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khenchela+0.00on par

ASO Chlef+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khenchela ↓

ASO Chlef →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Khenchela or draw

77%

Khenchela or ASO Chlef

71%

Draw or ASO Chlef

51%

Winning margin

Khenchela wins by 2+

23%

ASO Chlef wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Khenchela 1+ goals

73%

Khenchela 2+ goals

38%

Khenchela 3+ goals

14%

ASO Chlef 1+ goals

55%

ASO Chlef 2+ goals

19%

ASO Chlef 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Khenchela (draw refunded)

68%

ASO Chlef (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khenchela at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.65 · 60 matches

ASO Chlef away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.40 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khenchela attack 1.23 + ASO Chlef defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.31

ASO Chlef attack 0.92 + Khenchela defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Khenchela scores more

49%

level

29%

ASO Chlef scores more

23%

Khenchela at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Khenchela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff