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Khatlon vs Regar-TadAZ — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Khatlon
Khatlon
Preview
13:00
Regar-TadAZ
Regar-TadAZ
9/19/2026Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 17
Big match
39%
Khatlon
model favours
39%29%33%

Khatlon score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Khatlon39%
×Draw29%
Regar-TadAZ33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khatlon
1.19
Regar-TadAZ
1.07

Khatlon creates 11% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 49 away

creates per match

Khatlon
1.34
Regar-TadAZ
1.14

allows per match

Khatlon
1.00
Regar-TadAZ
1.04

finishing

Khatlon+0.00on par
Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khatlon ↓

Regar-TadAZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Khatlon or draw
67%
Khatlon or Regar-TadAZ
71%
Draw or Regar-TadAZ
61%

Winning margin

Khatlon wins by 2+
16%
Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Khatlon 1+ goals
70%
Khatlon 2+ goals
33%
Khatlon 3+ goals
12%
Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals
66%
Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals
29%
Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Khatlon (draw refunded)
54%
Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khatlon at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 47 matches

Regar-TadAZ away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khatlon attack 1.34 + Regar-TadAZ defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.14 + Khatlon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Khatlon scores more
39%
level
29%
Regar-TadAZ scores more
33%

Khatlon at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Khatlon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Khatlon
DLDDD
Regar-TadAZ
WWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Khatlon vs Regar-TadAZ — Match Preview

Khatlon face Regar-TadAZ on September 19, 2026 in this Vysshaya Liga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.