Khatlon 0–1 Regar-TadAZ: Result & Stats

Khatlon

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Regar-TadAZ

8/14/2022

Vysshaya Liga · Round 12Stadion Pakhtakor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Khatlon40%

×Draw27%

Regar-TadAZ33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhatlonExpected goals in this matchRegar-TadAZ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.17

Khatlon

1.33

Regar-TadAZ

1.17

Khatlon creates 14% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 89 away

1.31

creates per match

1.15

1.18

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Khatlon

1.31

Regar-TadAZ

1.15

allows per match

Khatlon

1.18

Regar-TadAZ

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khatlon+0.00on par

Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khatlon ↓

Regar-TadAZ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Khatlon or draw

67%

Khatlon or Regar-TadAZ

73%

Draw or Regar-TadAZ

60%

Winning margin

Khatlon wins by 2+

18%

Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Khatlon 1+ goals

74%

Khatlon 2+ goals

38%

Khatlon 3+ goals

15%

Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals

69%

Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals

33%

Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Khatlon (draw refunded)

55%

Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khatlon at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.18 · 99 matches

Regar-TadAZ away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.35 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khatlon attack 1.31 + Regar-TadAZ defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.15 + Khatlon defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Khatlon scores more

40%

level

27%

Regar-TadAZ scores more

33%

Khatlon at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Khatlon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff