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Khatlon vs Ravshan — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Khatlon
Khatlon
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Ravshan
Ravshan
T. Tagoyzoda 45+3'
C. Akpa 32'
J. Akomadi 81'
8/8/2023Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 16Stadion Pakhtakor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Khatlon40%
×Draw27%
Ravshan33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khatlon
1.29
Ravshan
1.15

Khatlon creates 12% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 72 away

creates per match

Khatlon
1.31
Ravshan
1.11

allows per match

Khatlon
1.18
Ravshan
1.26

finishing

Khatlon+0.00on par
Ravshan+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khatlon ↓

Ravshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Khatlon or draw
67%
Khatlon or Ravshan
73%
Draw or Ravshan
60%

Winning margin

Khatlon wins by 2+
18%
Ravshan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Khatlon 1+ goals
72%
Khatlon 2+ goals
37%
Khatlon 3+ goals
14%
Ravshan 1+ goals
68%
Ravshan 2+ goals
32%
Ravshan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Khatlon (draw refunded)
55%
Ravshan (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khatlon at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.18 · 99 matches

Ravshan away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khatlon attack 1.31 + Ravshan defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Ravshan attack 1.11 + Khatlon defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Khatlon scores more
40%
level
27%
Ravshan scores more
33%

Khatlon at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Khatlon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
C. Akpa
45+3'
T. Tagoyzoda
81'
J. Akomadi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khatlon vs Ravshan

Khatlon beat Ravshan 2-1 in Vysshaya Liga on August 8, 2023.

Goals: C. Akpa (32'), T. Tagoyzoda (45+3'), J. Akomadi (81').

The match was played at Stadion Pakhtakor in Kurgan-Tyube.