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Khan Tengri vs Arys — Cup 2019

Khan Tengri
Khan Tengri
FT
3 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Arys
Arys
M. Aymanov 85' (pen), 82' (pen)
Unknown 73'
A. Khadzhiev 90+1'
S. Satanov 80'
N. Buribayev 44'
V. Balashov 25'
3/27/2023CupCup · Qualifying Round - 3Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Khan Tengri51%
×Draw22%
Arys27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khan Tengri
1.94
Arys
1.36

Khan Tengri creates 43% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Khan Tengri
1.80
Arys
0.92

allows per match

Khan Tengri
1.80
Arys
2.08

finishing

Khan Tengri+0.00on par
Arys+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khan Tengri ↓

Arys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Khan Tengri or draw
73%
Khan Tengri or Arys
78%
Draw or Arys
49%

Winning margin

Khan Tengri wins by 2+
29%
Arys wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Khan Tengri 1+ goals
86%
Khan Tengri 2+ goals
58%
Khan Tengri 3+ goals
30%
Arys 1+ goals
74%
Arys 2+ goals
39%
Arys 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Khan Tengri (draw refunded)
65%
Arys (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khan Tengri at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Arys away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khan Tengri attack 1.80 + Arys defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.94

Arys attack 0.92 + Khan Tengri defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Khan Tengri scores more
51%
level
22%
Arys scores more
27%

Khan Tengri at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Khan Tengri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
V. Balashov
39'
44'
N. Buribayev
59'
73'
80'
S. Satanov
82'
M. AymanovPenalty
85'
M. AymanovPenalty
87'
90'
90+1'
A. Khadzhiev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Khan Tengri 3–4 Arys

Arys beat Khan Tengri 4-3 in Cup on March 27, 2023.

Goals: V. Balashov (25'), N. Buribayev (44'), ? (73'), S. Satanov (80'), M. Aymanov (82' pen, 85' pen), A. Khadzhiev (90+1').

The match was played at Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field in Shymkent.