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Khaleej Sart vs Al-Nasr — Premier League 2019

Khaleej Sart
Khaleej Sart
FT
1 – 1
Al-Nasr
Al-Nasr
6/30/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Khaleej Sart34%
×Draw28%
Al-Nasr38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khaleej Sart
1.16
Al-Nasr
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 68 away

creates per match

Khaleej Sart
1.42
Al-Nasr
1.28

allows per match

Khaleej Sart
1.21
Al-Nasr
0.90

finishing

Khaleej Sart+0.00on par
Al-Nasr+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khaleej Sart ↓

Al-Nasr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Khaleej Sart or draw
62%
Khaleej Sart or Al-Nasr
72%
Draw or Al-Nasr
66%

Winning margin

Khaleej Sart wins by 2+
14%
Al-Nasr wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Khaleej Sart 1+ goals
69%
Khaleej Sart 2+ goals
32%
Khaleej Sart 3+ goals
11%
Al-Nasr 1+ goals
71%
Al-Nasr 2+ goals
36%
Al-Nasr 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Khaleej Sart (draw refunded)
47%
Al-Nasr (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khaleej Sart at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

Al-Nasr away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.90 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khaleej Sart attack 1.42 + Al-Nasr defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.16

Al-Nasr attack 1.28 + Khaleej Sart defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Khaleej Sart scores more
34%
level
28%
Al-Nasr scores more
38%

Al-Nasr at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al-Nasr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khaleej Sart vs Al-Nasr

Khaleej Sart and Al-Nasr drew 1-1 in Premier League on June 30, 2021.