KFUM Oslo 3–1 Sogndal: Result & Stats | 1. Division

KFUM Oslo

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sogndal

B. Njie 90+5'

A. Sanyang 63'

J. Hummelvoll-Nunez 56'

A. Adams 12'

11/6/2021

1. Division · Round 28KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

KFUM Oslo49%

×Draw24%

Sogndal27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KFUM OsloExpected goals in this matchSogndal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.21

KFUM Oslo

1.70

Sogndal

1.21

KFUM Oslo creates 40% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 114 away

1.81

creates per match

1.33

1.08

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

KFUM Oslo

1.81

Sogndal

1.33

allows per match

KFUM Oslo

1.08

Sogndal

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KFUM Oslo+0.00on par

Sogndal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Oslo ↓

Sogndal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

KFUM Oslo or draw

73%

KFUM Oslo or Sogndal

76%

Draw or Sogndal

51%

Winning margin

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+

26%

Sogndal wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals

82%

KFUM Oslo 2+ goals

51%

KFUM Oslo 3+ goals

24%

Sogndal 1+ goals

70%

Sogndal 2+ goals

34%

Sogndal 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)

64%

Sogndal (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Oslo at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

Sogndal away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Oslo attack 1.81 + Sogndal defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.70

Sogndal attack 1.33 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

KFUM Oslo scores more

49%

level

24%

Sogndal scores more

27%

KFUM Oslo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "KFUM Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

39'

56'

59'

63'

66'

77'

77'

K. Hoven← D. Eid

79'

J. Bakke

79'

P. Romsaas← A. Sanyang

84'

F. Dahl← K. Ghaedamini

88'

B. Njie

89'

T. Sørås← J. Hummelvoll-Nunez

90'

A. Hoven

90+5'

B. Njie

KFUM

Sogndal

1

30

2

6

4

5

▼

17

25

7

26

▼

Darcy

10

⚽

Adams

28

Brauti

33

Hammer

2

▼

3

25

5

26

27

11

⚽

Njie

16

⚽

▼

Hummelvol

10

⚽

▼

Sanyang

Manager: J. Isnes

79'▲P. Romsaas←▼A. Sanyang

84'▲F. Dahl←▼K. Ghaedamini

89'▲T. Sørås←▼J. Hummelvoll-Nunez

KFUM Oslo substitutes

19Romsaas17Dahl21Sørås1Ødegaard4Alm6Holm9Tavakoli24Lindquist

Manager: E. Bakke

77'▲A. Hoven←▼R. Darcy

77'▲K. Hoven←▼D. Eid

Sogndal substitutes

11Hoven18Hoven9Kupen13Johnsen14Michael16Lereng19Bjørnebye