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KF vs Magni — Cup 2019

KF
KF
FT
0 – 4
Magni
Magni
4/20/2019CupCup · 2nd RoundKA-völlur (Akureyri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

KF28%
×Draw19%
Magni53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KF
1.75
Magni
2.44

Magni creates 39% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

KF
1.00
Magni
1.63

allows per match

KF
3.25
Magni
2.50

finishing

KF+0.00on par
Magni+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF ↓

Magni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

KF or draw
47%
KF or Magni
81%
Draw or Magni
72%

Winning margin

KF wins by 2+
13%
Magni wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

KF 1+ goals
83%
KF 2+ goals
52%
KF 3+ goals
25%
Magni 1+ goals
91%
Magni 2+ goals
70%
Magni 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

KF (draw refunded)
34%
Magni (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Magni away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF attack 1.00 + Magni defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Magni attack 1.63 + KF defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

KF scores more
28%
level
19%
Magni scores more
53%

Magni at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Magni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KF vs Magni

Magni beat KF 4-0 in Cup on April 20, 2019.

The match was played at KA-völlur (Akureyri).