KF Gostivari 2–2 Voska Sport: Result & Stats

KF Gostivari

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Voska Sport

9/17/2022

Second League · Round 5Igralište Golema Rečica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

KF Gostivari33%

×Draw24%

Voska Sport43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KF GostivariExpected goals in this matchVoska Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.60

KF Gostivari

1.38

Voska Sport

1.60

Voska Sport creates 16% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 15 away

1.83

creates per match

2.47

0.72

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

KF Gostivari

1.83

Voska Sport

2.47

allows per match

KF Gostivari

0.72

Voska Sport

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KF Gostivari+0.00on par

Voska Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF Gostivari ↓

Voska Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

KF Gostivari or draw

57%

KF Gostivari or Voska Sport

76%

Draw or Voska Sport

67%

Winning margin

KF Gostivari wins by 2+

15%

Voska Sport wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

KF Gostivari 1+ goals

75%

KF Gostivari 2+ goals

40%

KF Gostivari 3+ goals

16%

Voska Sport 1+ goals

80%

Voska Sport 2+ goals

47%

Voska Sport 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

KF Gostivari (draw refunded)

44%

Voska Sport (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF Gostivari at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.72 · 36 matches

Voska Sport away — creates 2.47, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF Gostivari attack 1.83 + Voska Sport defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.38

Voska Sport attack 2.47 + KF Gostivari defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

KF Gostivari scores more

33%

level

24%

Voska Sport scores more

43%

Voska Sport at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Voska Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff