Kerry 1–1 Wexford: Result & Stats | First Division

Kerry

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Wexford

S. O'Connell 12'

A. Dobbs 50'

3/29/2024

First Division · Round 7Mounthawk Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Kerry38%

×Draw26%

Wexford36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KerryExpected goals in this matchWexford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.34

Kerry

1.39

Wexford

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 118 away

1.05

creates per match

1.19

1.50

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Kerry

1.05

Wexford

1.19

allows per match

Kerry

1.50

Wexford

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kerry+0.00on par

Wexford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kerry ↓

Wexford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kerry or draw

64%

Kerry or Wexford

74%

Draw or Wexford

62%

Winning margin

Kerry wins by 2+

18%

Wexford wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kerry 1+ goals

75%

Kerry 2+ goals

40%

Kerry 3+ goals

16%

Wexford 1+ goals

74%

Wexford 2+ goals

39%

Wexford 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kerry (draw refunded)

52%

Wexford (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kerry at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.50 · 66 matches

Wexford away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.72 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kerry attack 1.05 + Wexford defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.39

Wexford attack 1.19 + Kerry defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kerry scores more

38%

level

26%

Wexford scores more

36%

Kerry at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kerry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

S. O'Connell

25'

D. Levingston← A. Robinson

30'

D. Levingston

35'

K. Corbally← C. OMalley

39'

S. Aladesanusi

42'

F. Barrett← S. Aladesanusi

46'

M. Hanratty← L. Lovic

50'

53'

66'

71'

71'

74'

B. McCann← J. Crawford

74'

C. Curtis← M. Rowe

78'

C. Brosnan← E. Kos

78'

V. Udeze← R. Kelliher

90+3'

B. Lynch

90+3'

B. Lynch

Kerry

Wexford

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. McCarthy

42'▲F. Barrett←▼S. Aladesanusi

66'▲R. Teahan←▼S. Healy

78'▲C. Brosnan←▼E. Kos

78'▲V. Udeze←▼R. Kelliher

Kerry substitutes

BarrettTeahanBrosnanUdezeCooneyFoleyO'ReillyAmechiSilong

Manager: J. Keddy

25'▲D. Levingston←▼A. Robinson

35'▲K. Corbally←▼C. OMalley

46'▲M. Hanratty←▼L. Lovic

74'▲B. McCann←▼J. Crawford

74'▲C. Curtis←▼M. Rowe

Wexford substitutes

LevingstonCorballyHanrattyMcCannCurtisMoodyLennoxHarnettO'Toole

First Division: Kerry 1–1 Wexford

Kerry and Wexford drew 1-1 in First Division on March 29, 2024.

Goals: S. O'Connell (12'), A. Dobbs (50').

The match was played at Mounthawk Park in Tralee.

Kerry vs Wexford — First Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First Division: Kerry 1–1 Wexford