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Kedus Giorgis vs Dire Dawa Kenema — Premier League 2019

Kedus Giorgis
Kedus Giorgis
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Dire Dawa Kenema
Dire Dawa Kenema
1/27/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Kedus Giorgis46%
×Draw29%
Dire Dawa Kenema26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kedus Giorgis
1.29
Dire Dawa Kenema
0.89

Kedus Giorgis creates 45% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 100 away

creates per match

Kedus Giorgis
1.33
Dire Dawa Kenema
0.99

allows per match

Kedus Giorgis
0.79
Dire Dawa Kenema
1.24

finishing

Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par
Dire Dawa Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kedus Giorgis ↓

Dire Dawa Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kedus Giorgis or draw
74%
Kedus Giorgis or Dire Dawa Kenema
71%
Draw or Dire Dawa Kenema
54%

Winning margin

Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+
21%
Dire Dawa Kenema wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals
72%
Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals
37%
Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals
14%
Dire Dawa Kenema 1+ goals
59%
Dire Dawa Kenema 2+ goals
22%
Dire Dawa Kenema 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)
64%
Dire Dawa Kenema (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kedus Giorgis at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.79 · 102 matches

Dire Dawa Kenema away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.33 + Dire Dawa Kenema defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Dire Dawa Kenema attack 0.99 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kedus Giorgis scores more
46%
level
29%
Dire Dawa Kenema scores more
26%

Kedus Giorgis at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kedus Giorgis 0 – 3 Dire Dawa Kenema

Dire Dawa Kenema beat Kedus Giorgis 3-0 in Premier League on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.