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Keçiörengücü vs Esenler Erokspor — 1. Lig 2018

Keçiörengücü
Keçiörengücü
Preview
16:00
Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
4/4/20271. Lig1. Lig · Round 32Aktepe Stadium
38%
Esenler Erokspor
model favours
37%25%38%

Keçiörengücü win just 25% against the top half (vs 52% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Keçiörengücü37%
×Draw25%
Esenler Erokspor38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Keçiörengücü
1.39
Esenler Erokspor
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 124 home / 38 away

creates per match

Keçiörengücü
1.60
Esenler Erokspor
1.71

allows per match

Keçiörengücü
1.08
Esenler Erokspor
1.18

finishing

Keçiörengücü+0.00on par
Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keçiörengücü ↓

Esenler Erokspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Keçiörengücü or draw
62%
Keçiörengücü or Esenler Erokspor
75%
Draw or Esenler Erokspor
63%

Winning margin

Keçiörengücü wins by 2+
17%
Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Keçiörengücü 1+ goals
75%
Keçiörengücü 2+ goals
40%
Keçiörengücü 3+ goals
16%
Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
75%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
41%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Keçiörengücü (draw refunded)
50%
Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keçiörengücü at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keçiörengücü attack 1.60 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.39

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.71 + Keçiörengücü defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Keçiörengücü scores more
37%
level
25%
Esenler Erokspor scores more
38%

Esenler Erokspor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Keçiörengücü
Balanced
Esenler Erokspor
Possession-dominant
51%PossessionBiggest gap57%
80%Pass accuracy82%
12.3Shots13.6
2.08xG1.88
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
KeçiörengücüEsenler Erokspor

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

0
Keçiörengücü
3
Draws
1
Esenler Erokspor
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 75%
0–11–12–22–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Keçiörengücü
LWWLD
Erokspor
LDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Keçiörengücü face Esenler Erokspor (1. Lig)

1. Lig returns with Keçiörengücü hosting Esenler Erokspor. Match starts April 4, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Keçiörengücü host Esenler Erokspor at Aktepe Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.