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Keçiörengücü vs Adanaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Keçiörengücü
Keçiörengücü
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Adanaspor
Adanaspor
8/28/20211. Lig1. Lig · Round 3Osmanlı Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Keçiörengücü52%
×Draw25%
Adanaspor23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Keçiörengücü
1.61
Adanaspor
0.99

Keçiörengücü creates 63% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 117 away

creates per match

Keçiörengücü
1.60
Adanaspor
0.89

allows per match

Keçiörengücü
1.08
Adanaspor
1.62

finishing

Keçiörengücü+0.00on par
Adanaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keçiörengücü ↓

Adanaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Keçiörengücü or draw
77%
Keçiörengücü or Adanaspor
75%
Draw or Adanaspor
48%

Winning margin

Keçiörengücü wins by 2+
27%
Adanaspor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Keçiörengücü 1+ goals
80%
Keçiörengücü 2+ goals
48%
Keçiörengücü 3+ goals
22%
Adanaspor 1+ goals
63%
Adanaspor 2+ goals
26%
Adanaspor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Keçiörengücü (draw refunded)
69%
Adanaspor (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keçiörengücü at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Adanaspor away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.62 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keçiörengücü attack 1.60 + Adanaspor defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.61

Adanaspor attack 0.89 + Keçiörengücü defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Keçiörengücü scores more
52%
level
25%
Adanaspor scores more
23%

Keçiörengücü at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Keçiörengücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Keçiörengücü vs Adanaspor

Keçiörengücü beat Adanaspor 2-0 in 1. Lig on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Osmanlı Stadı in Ankara.