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KCCA vs Wakiso Giants — Premier League 2019

KCCA
KCCA
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wakiso Giants
Wakiso Giants
5/21/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30MTN Omondi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

KCCA62%
×Draw23%
Wakiso Giants15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KCCA
1.75
Wakiso Giants
0.73

KCCA creates 140% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 84 away

creates per match

KCCA
2.14
Wakiso Giants
0.76

allows per match

KCCA
0.71
Wakiso Giants
1.35

finishing

KCCA+0.00on par
Wakiso Giants+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCCA ↓

Wakiso Giants →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

KCCA or draw
85%
KCCA or Wakiso Giants
77%
Draw or Wakiso Giants
38%

Winning margin

KCCA wins by 2+
35%
Wakiso Giants wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

KCCA 1+ goals
83%
KCCA 2+ goals
52%
KCCA 3+ goals
25%
Wakiso Giants 1+ goals
52%
Wakiso Giants 2+ goals
17%
Wakiso Giants 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

KCCA (draw refunded)
80%
Wakiso Giants (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCCA at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.71 · 99 matches

Wakiso Giants away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.35 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCCA attack 2.14 + Wakiso Giants defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.75

Wakiso Giants attack 0.76 + KCCA defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

KCCA scores more
62%
level
23%
Wakiso Giants scores more
15%

KCCA at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "KCCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: KCCA 0–1 Wakiso Giants

Wakiso Giants beat KCCA 1-0 in Premier League on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at MTN Omondi Stadium in Kampala.