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KCCA vs Express — Premier League 2019

KCCA
KCCA
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Express
Express
10/8/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1MTN Omondi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

KCCA58%
×Draw24%
Express18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KCCA
1.70
Express
0.82

KCCA creates 107% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 101 away

creates per match

KCCA
2.14
Express
0.93

allows per match

KCCA
0.71
Express
1.26

finishing

KCCA+0.00on par
Express+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCCA ↓

Express →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

KCCA or draw
82%
KCCA or Express
76%
Draw or Express
42%

Winning margin

KCCA wins by 2+
32%
Express wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

KCCA 1+ goals
82%
KCCA 2+ goals
51%
KCCA 3+ goals
24%
Express 1+ goals
56%
Express 2+ goals
20%
Express 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

KCCA (draw refunded)
76%
Express (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCCA at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.71 · 99 matches

Express away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCCA attack 2.14 + Express defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.70

Express attack 0.93 + KCCA defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

KCCA scores more
58%
level
24%
Express scores more
18%

KCCA at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "KCCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KCCA 1 – 2 Express

Express beat KCCA 2-1 in Premier League on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at MTN Omondi Stadium in Kampala.