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Kawkab Marrakech vs Tihad Casablanca — Botola 2 2025

Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
FT
0 – 0
Tihad Casablanca
Tihad Casablanca
9/21/2019Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 2Stade de Marrakech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech45%
×Draw28%
Tihad Casablanca26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawkab Marrakech
1.29
Tihad Casablanca
0.91

Kawkab Marrakech creates 42% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 46 away

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.41
Tihad Casablanca
0.87

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech
0.95
Tihad Casablanca
1.17

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par
Tihad Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

Tihad Casablanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw
74%
Kawkab Marrakech or Tihad Casablanca
72%
Draw or Tihad Casablanca
55%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
21%
Tihad Casablanca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
72%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
37%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
14%
Tihad Casablanca 1+ goals
60%
Tihad Casablanca 2+ goals
23%
Tihad Casablanca 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
63%
Tihad Casablanca (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

Tihad Casablanca away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.41 + Tihad Casablanca defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

Tihad Casablanca attack 0.87 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more
45%
level
28%
Tihad Casablanca scores more
26%

Kawkab Marrakech at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Kawkab Marrakech 0–0 Tihad Casablanca

Kawkab Marrakech and Tihad Casablanca drew 0-0 in Botola 2 on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stade de Marrakech in Marrakech.