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Kawkab Marrakech vs Hassania Agadir — Botola Pro 2025

Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
FT
0 – 2
Hassania Agadir
Hassania Agadir
11/3/2018Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 7Stade de Marrakech (Marrakech)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech43%
×Draw30%
Hassania Agadir28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawkab Marrakech
1.19
Hassania Agadir
0.90

Kawkab Marrakech creates 32% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 119 away

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.20
Hassania Agadir
0.80

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.00
Hassania Agadir
1.18

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par
Hassania Agadir+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

Hassania Agadir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw
72%
Kawkab Marrakech or Hassania Agadir
70%
Draw or Hassania Agadir
57%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
18%
Hassania Agadir wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
70%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
33%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
12%
Hassania Agadir 1+ goals
59%
Hassania Agadir 2+ goals
23%
Hassania Agadir 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
61%
Hassania Agadir (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

Hassania Agadir away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.18 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.20 + Hassania Agadir defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Hassania Agadir attack 0.80 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more
43%
level
30%
Hassania Agadir scores more
28%

Kawkab Marrakech at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kawkab Marrakech vs Hassania Agadir

Hassania Agadir beat Kawkab Marrakech 2-0 in Botola Pro on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Stade de Marrakech (Marrakech).