Kawkab Marrakech 2–1 Difaa EL Jadida

Kawkab Marrakech

FT

2 – 1

Difaa EL Jadida

10/20/2018

Botola Pro · Round 5Stade de Marrakech (Marrakech)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech45%

×Draw27%

Difaa EL Jadida28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kawkab MarrakechExpected goals in this matchDifaa EL Jadida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.02

Kawkab Marrakech

1.38

Difaa EL Jadida

1.02

Kawkab Marrakech creates 35% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 106 away

1.21

creates per match

1.04

1.00

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech

1.21

Difaa EL Jadida

1.04

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech

1.00

Difaa EL Jadida

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

Difaa EL Jadida →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw

72%

Kawkab Marrakech or Difaa EL Jadida

73%

Draw or Difaa EL Jadida

55%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+

21%

Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals

75%

Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals

40%

Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals

16%

Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals

64%

Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals

27%

Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)

62%

Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Difaa EL Jadida away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.55 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.21 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.38

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.04 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more

45%

level

27%

Difaa EL Jadida scores more

28%

Kawkab Marrakech at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff