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Kaw Valley vs Thunder Bay Chill — USL League Two 2018

Kaw Valley
Kaw Valley
PST
00:30
Thunder Bay Chill
Thunder Bay Chill
6/14/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 30Hummer Sports Complex (Topeka, Kansas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kaw Valley32%
×Draw22%
Thunder Bay Chill47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaw Valley
1.64
Thunder Bay Chill
2.01

Thunder Bay Chill creates 23% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 21 away

creates per match

Kaw Valley
2.08
Thunder Bay Chill
1.71

allows per match

Kaw Valley
2.31
Thunder Bay Chill
1.19

finishing

Kaw Valley+0.00on par
Thunder Bay Chill+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaw Valley ↓

Thunder Bay Chill →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Kaw Valley or draw
53%
Kaw Valley or Thunder Bay Chill
78%
Draw or Thunder Bay Chill
68%

Winning margin

Kaw Valley wins by 2+
15%
Thunder Bay Chill wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Kaw Valley 1+ goals
81%
Kaw Valley 2+ goals
49%
Kaw Valley 3+ goals
23%
Thunder Bay Chill 1+ goals
87%
Thunder Bay Chill 2+ goals
59%
Thunder Bay Chill 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Kaw Valley (draw refunded)
41%
Thunder Bay Chill (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaw Valley at home — creates 2.08, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Thunder Bay Chill away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaw Valley attack 2.08 + Thunder Bay Chill defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.64

Thunder Bay Chill attack 1.71 + Kaw Valley defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kaw Valley scores more
32%
level
22%
Thunder Bay Chill scores more
47%

Thunder Bay Chill at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Thunder Bay Chill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kaw Valley host Thunder Bay Chill

June 14, 2020: Kaw Valley take on Thunder Bay Chill in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kaw Valley host Thunder Bay Chill at Hummer Sports Complex (Topeka, Kansas).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.