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Kaw Valley vs Manitoba — USL League Two 2018

Kaw Valley
Kaw Valley
PST
00:00
Manitoba
Manitoba
5/22/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 8Rock Chalk Park (Lawrence, Kansas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Kaw Valley37%
×Draw21%
Manitoba42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaw Valley
1.88
Manitoba
2.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Kaw Valley
2.08
Manitoba
1.75

allows per match

Kaw Valley
2.31
Manitoba
1.67

finishing

Kaw Valley+0.00on par
Manitoba+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaw Valley ↓

Manitoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Kaw Valley or draw
58%
Kaw Valley or Manitoba
79%
Draw or Manitoba
63%

Winning margin

Kaw Valley wins by 2+
19%
Manitoba wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Kaw Valley 1+ goals
85%
Kaw Valley 2+ goals
56%
Kaw Valley 3+ goals
29%
Manitoba 1+ goals
87%
Manitoba 2+ goals
60%
Manitoba 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Kaw Valley (draw refunded)
46%
Manitoba (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaw Valley at home — creates 2.08, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Manitoba away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaw Valley attack 2.08 + Manitoba defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.88

Manitoba attack 1.75 + Kaw Valley defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kaw Valley scores more
37%
level
21%
Manitoba scores more
42%

Manitoba at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Manitoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kaw Valley host Manitoba

May 22, 2020: Kaw Valley take on Manitoba in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kaw Valley host Manitoba at Rock Chalk Park (Lawrence, Kansas).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.